Timebomb: Why Gen Zs say Kenya has lost its way

Two years after Kenya's historic Gen Z uprising blindsided state security agencies and transformed the country's political landscape, an alarming new poll has fired a massive warning shot ahead of the next general election, revealing that the nation's vast pool of young voters overwhelmingly believes the country and its economy are heading in the wrong direction.

The African Youth Survey 2026 paints a damning portrait of a generation that helped force President William Ruto to scrap a contentious finance bill and dismiss his entire Cabinet in 2024, yet feels its core demands — jobs, accountability and a seat at the decision-making table — remain largely unmet.

Eight in 10 young Kenyans, 80 per cent, say the country is moving in the wrong direction, while 79 per cent say the national economy is heading the same way. Seven in 10 identify unemployment and poverty as the biggest threat to community safety — the highest figure recorded across the 16 countries surveyed — and the same proportion say job creation for young people should be the government's leading priority for improving security.

"Kenyan youth are sending a constructive message," said Ivor Ichikowitz, founder and commissioner of the African Youth Survey, which interviewed 4,901 young Africans aged 18 to 24 across 16 countries in March 2026. "They believe in democracy, they want to participate and they want more opportunities to contribute to national decision-making. Above all, they connect Kenya's future to work, enterprise and economic security."

The findings offer a troubling paradox. While 81 per cent say democracy is always preferable to any other form of government and 76 per cent believe their voice matters to national leaders, a staggering 66 per cent support non-peaceful protests and actions to enact political change. Almost all Kenyan respondents, 96 per cent, say they would be more likely to vote for a political party that fielded more young candidates — the second-highest result in the survey — while 86 per cent believe there are too few young people in leadership positions in government.

The willingness to embrace non-peaceful action signals a ticking time bomb, analysts warn. Should this generation continue to feel ignored by a political establishment that has repeatedly failed to translate its promises into tangible opportunities, the consequences could be far more severe than the 2024 protests that left dozens dead and forced a national reckoning.

The survey's release comes as President Ruto, who overhauled his administration in the wake of the June 2024 protests, faces mounting pressure from ordinary citizens to address the cost of living crisis and create jobs for a youth population that feels increasingly betrayed.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has backed Kenya's economic reform programme, has previously acknowledged that governance concerns and poor communication around tax measures contributed to the 2024 unrest. IMF officials, reflecting on Kenya's Gen Z uprising, told reporters in Washington that "people's willingness to pay more taxes is directly correlated to assurances that resources are being used effectively and transparently."

More recently, the IMF has warned that prolonged disruptions to global energy and fertilizer markets — exacerbated by the ongoing US-Iran war — could heighten the risk of social unrest and domestic political instability, particularly in countries like Kenya where policy space is limited and elections loom. With the August 2027 general election now less than a year away, public patience among Gen Z is wearing thin, amplifying the stakes of every policy decision.

"The findings provide a practical agenda for government, business and civil society," Ichikowitz said. "Young Kenyans want pathways into jobs, confidence that essential services will be protected and international partnerships that create real opportunity. The task now is to convert that energy into inclusion, growth and shared progress."

President Ruto's National Treasury itself issued an unusual public plea for "innovative ideas" just weeks ago, acknowledging that the government has run out of room to tax.

Amid the dissatisfaction, President Ruto last week defended his administration's track record on job creation, insisting that action has replaced rhetoric in the jobs push.

"For far too long, youth unemployment has been acknowledged, debated and lamented. We have chosen action over rhetoric," Ruto declared at a State House launch for a youth programme. He maintained that his administration has deliberately placed young people at the centre of everything it is building, adding that the government is "not merely creating jobs" but creating opportunities through which young people discover their talents, develop mastery and realise their full potential.

He spoke when he unveiled the Next Generation Youth Employment Programme (NextGen.KE), a partnership with the United Nations Development Programme and the Kenya Private Sector Alliance targeting 30,000 young people initially, with plans to scale up to 100,000 over three years. The government has committed Sh2 billion to the programme this year, with plans to increase funding to Sh5 billion next year.

Ruto outlined a raft of initiatives his administration has rolled out over the past three years. He said more than 100,000 teachers had been recruited so far, with numbers set to rise to 120,000 by year-end. He added that about 5,200 young people had been placed in internships under the Affordable Housing Programme and 820,000 young people equipped with skills and enterprise support under NYOTA. He said 1.9 million Kenyans had been trained in digital skills enabling 350,000 digital jobs, and more than 580,000 young Kenyans are now working abroad. He said his government had also strengthened the Youth Enterprise Fund and the Hustler Fund while opening public procurement to young entrepreneurs through Access to Government Procurement Opportunities.

But the scale of the challenge dwarfs the ambition, and young people remain sceptical. The World Bank estimates Sub-Saharan Africa must create 25 million new jobs annually over the next quarter-century to keep pace with its growing labour force. In Kenya, where two in every three people are either Gen Z — those born between 1997 and 2012 — or Gen Alpha — the cohort born from 2013 onwards — the gap between promise and delivery has never been wider, youth polled in the study say.

Kenyan youth are also among the most internationally aware respondents in the survey. Some 87 per cent say the world is becoming more divided and dangerous, the highest figure across the 16 countries sampled. Kenya records the strongest perceived Chinese influence in the survey, with 94 per cent saying China has some or a lot of influence in the country; among those respondents, 96 per cent view that influence positively. American influence is also widely recognised at 87 per cent, while Kenya records the highest EU ally rating in the survey, with 99 per cent regarding the bloc as an ally.

The same international awareness is reflected in concern about changes to development assistance. Some 63 per cent expect USAID ceasing to operate as an independent foreign assistance agency to have a negative impact, and three-quarters identify healthcare services and disease prevention as areas likely to be affected.