Landmines and obstacles in the presidential race

Linda Mwananchi team led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna during a rally in Trans Nzoia County on July 25, 2026. [Linda Mwananchi, X]

I stretched my hand to greet him. He looked at me, bit his lips, and his eyes widened in horror. He let out a scream, clutched his chest and fell backwards. Before I could internalize what was happening, my aide quickly led me out of the hall.

My supporters and the media were waiting for my victory speech as the newly elected President of the Kenya Karate Federation (KKF).

I’m told my main rival was hospitalized after the shocking loss. He had spent heavily campaigning for a whole year. Since I couldn’t match his financial muscle, I relied on guidance from three key friends: Vice President Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka; Prime Minister Raila Odinga and businessman and now Mombasa Governor Abdulsamuad Nassir.

While my rival crisscrossed the country buying eligible voting delegates nyama choma and beer, I organized Karate tournaments, trained with coaches and players while listening to their stories; needs and dreams.

I recall my Karate campaign strategies whenever I listen to politicians announcing their intention to run for the presidency in 2027. Some have no idea the battles and evil machinations that lie ahead of them.

Before he vied for the Presidency in 2007, Kalonzo was, through the Kalonzo Musyoka Foundation, helping hundreds of children and youth go to school and college. Raila wired himself perfectly with his supporters, while Abdulsamuad had worked for years with women's groups and youth in his constituency before he became MP for Mvita.  Despite these efforts, they still met fierce resistance.

In Kenya, once you declare interest in a political seat, you open yourself to attacks, mudslinging, and even death. The presidency however, remains the most sought-after seat that has claimed lives and destroyed careers. In the 1960s, being perceived as a potential heir to Kenya’s ailing founding President Mzee Jomo Kenyatta ended many lives. Those considered ‘favourites’ were eliminated by the ruling elite.

On February 24 1965, Pio Gama Pinto was gunned down outside his gate. In 1966, Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga was outfoxed and forced to resign. His Kenya People's Union (KPU) party was later banned. On January 29 1969, lawyer Argwins Kodhek died in a mysterious road accident.

The police were also used to ‘drink’ individuals to death. Dr. Julius Gikonyo Kiano, one of Jomo’s brilliant cabinet ministers, was a favourite: “My husband didn’t know that some of his drinking mates were Special Branch officers,” said Ernestine, Kiano’s African-American wife.

Ernestine once told me during a book interview that: “One day a young Luo man from the Special Branch visited me. He told me, ‘Madam, your husband was to be assassinated, but they decided to destroy him through alcohol’. He handed me a list and disappeared after warning me that I would soon be deported from Kenya.” A chill ran down her spine. Among those on the assassination list were: Kiano, Pio Gama Pinto and Tom Mboya.” That was in January 1965. She was deported in 1966 and Mboya was killed in 1969.

Vice President Daniel arap Moi survived harassment and intimidation from leaders and police from the Rift Valley and Central Kenya who didn’t want him to become president. He survived their assassination schemes. Then, in March 1975, populist legislator J.M Kariuki, was murdered.  

In his book, The State of Africa Martin Meredith, sums up J.M Kariuki’s ambitions: “Kariuki’s goal, quite openly was to inherit the presidency, after Kenyatta’s death. He built his popularity with a sustained attack on the scramble for land and wealth that so occupied the Kenyan elite. ‘A stable Social Order’, he declared, cannot be built on the poverty of millions. Frustrations born of poverty breed turmoil and violence,”

Meredith says: “In truth, Kariuki was not a particularly admirable character. A playboy, an inveterate gambler, he himself owned two farms, a racehorse, a light aircraft and several cars, he also had a reputation for sharp business practices. But he possessed an unerring popular touch and he skilfully exploited the groundswell of discontent that was building up over the greed and corruption clearly evident at the top of the Kenyan society.” J.M never lived his ambition.

In 2012, former Vice President George Saitoti declared interest in the presidency. He had established a secretariat and set aside huge finances. Then he promised to table in Parliament a detailed report on drug trafficking on Tuesday June 14. On June 10, 2012, he died in a helicopter crash. A potential threat to the presidency, one with enough resources and a war chest, had been silenced for good. 

Betrayals and dirty games

As we move close to the election date, betrayal will thrive. Kalonzo is among experienced leaders inured to the pain of betrayal. In his book, Against all Odds, he vividly recalls the night, in 2013, when he was betrayed by Uhuru and Ruto: “We had agreed with Ruto that I would be on the presidential ticket; with Uhuru as my running mate or vice versa. Ruto was to be the Majority leader... As the discussions went on, I realised that things had changed. Ruto sat silently as Uhuru spoke: “Stephen” he said, “we have decided that you should choose some other position but not the presidency or deputy presidency”

Kalonzo says: “...with the wisdom of hindsight, I think they made the decision after looking at the voter registration figures and discovering that between the Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities, to which they belonged, the two of them had what political commentator Mutahi Ngunyi, later described as “the tyranny of numbers”. 

Kalonzo has already been endorsed by his Wiper Patriotic Front party as the 2027 presidential candidate. He says that: “We must not, as leaders use our positions to serve narrow and selfish goals. We must never convert national resources into personal property. Together we can turn the tide and get the wheels of progress, prosperity and equity moving faster to make this nation an economic giant.”

Kalonzo says his leadership will address all issues raised by the GenZs street protests. He aims to free Kenya from chains of poverty, ignite economic growth and ensure all communities live in harmony with each other.

Presidential campaigns come with propaganda and countless dirty tricks. In 2007, Raila smoked Kalonzo out of ODM. Kalonzo walked away with ODK-K. Raila would later regret his betrayal of Kalonzo.

In his memoir, Seasons of Hope, former Kitui Senator David Musila recalls the challenges Kalonzo and his team faced during his 2007 presidential bid.

“The Kalonzo campaign turned out to be a difficult one, having initially marketed ourselves as one team with Raila. The campaigns were heated and often acrimonious. Tribal animosities were gathering strength with some media houses igniting and stoking ethnic fires. During the 2007 election campaigns, the ODM-K team had borne the brunt of ridicule. We were no match for the might of our rivals in terms of resources and we struggled through our campaigns. I recall a fundraiser event we organised at the Mayfair Hotel which raised Ksh 17 million, a laughable figure compared to what the Kibaki team would raise during a similar function at the Safari Park Hotel” Says Musila.

Musila says that Kalonzo’s wealthier rivals would “book all helicopters and block them” to ensure Kalonzo was grounded.  

At one time, Kalonzo was to attend the funeral of former Agriculture minister Darius Mbela in Taita. His rivals commandeered the helicopter he had booked. He took a small fixed wing aircraft which flew him to Voi. He arrived at the tail end of the ceremony and managed to address mourners to the chagrin of his opponents.

The High Cost

Kenya’s politics is for the super-rich. Tom Wolf, a renowned pollster, says: “Kenya elections are today among the most expensive in the world in terms of the cost (incurred by), the electoral management body, but also in terms of on-the-ground financing”

Some sources place the cost of an effective presidential campaign at Sh2.34 billion. Costs are driven by logistics and transport; advertising, printing merchandise, overt operations and management. Candidates hire helicopters which they pay per hour in order to access to expansive areas.   

Law Society of Kenya President Charles Kanjama argues that elections in Kenya are expensive because: “of the trust deficit caused by years of rigging and election malpractices. Kenya invests in some of the most expensive technologies in all spheres of electoral processes. The paper used to print the ballot, is like valuable currency”

Former Chief Justice David Maraga, who has also declared interest in the presidency, has proposed that Kenya adopt crowdsourcing. He asked Kenyans to fundraise for his campaign.

Many have expressed interest in the presidency. On October 10 2025, the Wiper Patriotic Front (WPF), handed Kalonzo his nomination certificate. Jubilee party picked its deputy party leader Dr. Fred Matiangi, while businessman Jimmy Wanjigi said he will vie on Safina party ticket. Others are Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah; musician, and academician Dr. Reuben Kagame; civil rights activist Boniface Mwangi and former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua.

However, if the opposition fails to unite, Ruto will ease through victory. For them to unite however, says Wanjigi, they must focus on issues affecting ordinary Kenyans and address economic grievances that sparked public anger and bloody protests.

Many believe that Ruto completely lost the confidence of Kenyans during the countrywide Finance Bill 2024 street protests. But Wanjigi argues that “People didn’t go to the streets because Ruto is a liar or corrupt. They demonstrated because they cannot breathe under heavy taxes whose benefits they don’t see. Ruto is just a symptom. The disease runs deep. If we don’t treat it, the next leader will face the same revolt”

Wanjigi is worried about the obsession with the tribe and region by former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua. Gachagua is obsessed with his boisterous talk about his Kikuyu community’s tyranny of number and economic superiority.

“Our politics”, says Wanjigi, “is about uniting Kenyans. Tribal politics is old school, useless and boorish. Gachagua has chosen a tribal path. That’s not Safina’s politics. Safina is rooted in shared economic pain, not tribal arithmetic,” 

Gachagua is technically out of the race due to impeachment. Observers say that his abrasive character and lack of wisdom cost him his position as Deputy President and a shot at the presidency. They argue that if only he had been humble and tactful like Moi was under Kenyatta, Kibaki under Moi, and Kalonzo under Kibaki, he would have survived.

If he had read Robert Greene’s bestselling book; The 48 Laws of Power, Gachagua might never have tried to outshine his master. He would have strived to make those above him feel superior and avoided triggering their insecurity.

Dr. Fred Matiangi must work on his image as an abrasive, ruthless, arrogant bully. During his time in Uhuru Kenyatta’s government, Matiangi was an all-powerful minister in charge of the security apparatus. In 2017, many atrocities, extrajudicial killings and kidnappings took place under his watch. 

When he served as ICT CS between 2013 and 2015, he was humble. Then, as CS Interior, Uhuru Kenyatta transferred some functions from Ruto’s office to Matiangi. With enhanced powers, he became proud and extremely arrogant.

His supporters see Matiangi as a tough, efficient, no-nonsense administrator while rivals describe him as: proud, arrogant and a vindictive bully.

Matiangi has promised to lead Kenya into a new era of reform, accountability and transformation: “Let’s not point fingers. Let’s focus on moving forward,” He told the Diaspora forum in the US last year

A political analyst, Prof. Gitile Naituli, says: “Dr Matiangi represents a disciplined and competent brand of leadership that resonates with many Kenyans, disillusioned by populism and empty promises”

Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah wants his name on the ballot. On November 27 2024, he appointed a 10 member committee to conduct a poll on his viability. The committee led by Ms Mary Kathomi, was tasked with engaging stakeholders to gather information on the viability of Omtatah as a presidential candidate. If he runs, Omtatah says he will relay on partnerships to fund his bid.

The committee’s patron, Julius Okara says that: “We’re confident Omtatah is overqualified (for the presidential position). He’s well manifested track record of being the people’s defender, a relentless watchdog for the public and his sober approach to debates of national importance makes him exactly the people’s servant the country desperately needs”  

Omtatah is known for his many court cases against the government, challenging questionable government decisions. He has suffered and endured threats and assault. He once chained himself on the fence of the police headquarters, Vigilance House, to protest police brutality against Kenyans.

In June 2024, Kenya witnessed some of the worst street protests. Youth were protesting against the government’s 2024 Finance Bill. On June 25, 2024, the protestors stormed Parliament. Scores were gunned down.

When Ruto’s opponents thought the protest had fatally wounded him, he entered into a broad-based government with Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

The Ruto administration has been accused of perpetuating arbitrary arrests, enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings. Issues that galvanised the protestors include; corruption, economic justice, youth unemployment and equitable access to healthcare and education; high cost of living and treacherous taxation.

However, Ruto, an experienced and cunning politician, still has a whole year to make good or bamboozle Kenyans in to re-electing him. He might just surprise many by completing stalled projects and easing economic pain, albeit briefly. The opposition must unite and change tactics to outdo him.  

When the dust settles in the 2027 presidential race, some leaders might suffer shock like did my Karate rival. My only prayer is that no blood will be shed and Kenya will remain standing and united.