The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline and its implications for regional dynamics and security

The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline could boost energy exports and strengthen regional cooperation across Africa. [Courtesy]

For decades, West African States and their neighbouring countries in North Africa have envisioned building interconnected infrastructure to enhance economic development and drive growth among their economies. In the early 1970s, West African countries, in their quest to ensure regional integration, synchronised their road transportation systems. Most former British colonies that drove on the left side of the road -including Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone, and The Gambia -changed to driving on the right side to align with the majority of Francophone and Lusophone countries.

This seemingly inconsequential synchronisation was followed by the West African Highway Project, which helped bring countries in the region closer through quality road networks and infrastructure. In 2011, the undersea West African Gas Pipeline was constructed. The project, which supplies natural gas from Nigeria to the littoral states of Benin, Togo, and Ghana, was the first of its kind in the region. The project enhanced energy security in the sub-region and strengthened cooperation among member states of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), who share common interests. This also contributed to better coordination in maritime security.

Despite the relatively impressive intra-regional collaboration aimed at achieving economic growth through infrastructure development, there has been little cooperation between West Africa and neighbouring North African states, especially those in western North Africa. This has persisted despite the long borders that countries in these two regions share across the Sahel and Sahara.

The recent announcement, then, that the long-discussed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline has entered the construction phase, represents a major step towards breaking the barriers of integration between West and North Africa.

The pipeline is expected to transport natural gas from the Gulf of Guinea to the Mediterranean and onward to continental Europe. The pipeline is estimated to cover 4,128 km and will have its first segment of 1,210 km constructed in Algeria. It is expected to cost approximately $13 billion. When complete, it will have the capacity to transport approximately 30 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually.

At the inter-regional level, the project is set to enhance economic and political relations between West and North Africa, particularly among the countries directly connected by the pipeline.

Over the past five years, relations between several military-led governments and their neighbours have been strained, often with serious security consequences. Tensions have emerged between Mali and Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Côte d'Ivoire, Niger and Benin, Mali and Mauritania, as well as Mali and Algeria. The new project could generate outcomes that encourage other states to pursue greater collaboration and cooperation.

Before the latest announcement, which has transformed the project from a vision into a reality, relations between Algeria and Niger, as well as between Nigeria and Niger, had been strained.

In the latter case, tensions arose when Nigeria-led ECOWAS threatened to remove Niger’s military Junta from government, following the 2023 coup, through the use of military force. The move was met with collective resistance from the military-led governments in the Sahel. Since then, relations between Abuja and Niamey have remained cool, although recent détente has brought some warmth to bilateral ties.

Algeria and Niger have also experienced tensions over issues relating to Tuareg nationalism and extremism. Niger and Mali have blamed the North African state - and Africa's largest country by land area - for worsening terrorism in their territories. However, recent rapprochement between Algiers and Niamey has improved relations and paved the way for the implementation of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline.

From northern Nigeria through parts of Niger into southern Algeria, the pipeline will traverse hostile environments and ungoverned spaces that serve as havens for extremists, anti-government forces, and bandits. Therefore, the construction of such sensitive infrastructure will make it imperative for the three states to strengthen security cooperation. Without effective security, the project will fail.

To prevent sabotage and other hostile activities against the project and ensure its successful operation, a security "triumvirate" would be required to protect it. Algeria has considerable experience in combating extremism and possesses significant security capabilities. Nigeria, despite its challenges, continues to build substantial capacity against militant groups, while Niger - one of the largest landlocked countries in Africa - can provide territorial access and strategic locations for effective security operations. Thus, unintended counterterrorism progress could be achieved through security cooperation aimed at safeguarding the project.

Days ago, Algeria announced plans to establish a training institution for drone pilots. Cutting-edge technologies, including drones, will be integral to securing the project during and after construction. This is particularly important given the vast territories involved. Effective protection of the pipeline from hostile actors will require significant surveillance capabilities and, where necessary, kinetic responses.

The project is also expected to increase revenue for the participating countries. If Europe can purchase the natural gas transported through the pipeline, the resulting revenue could support economies with largely youthful populations facing high unemployment. The project could become an integral part of the economic mix that helps transform these economies and create much-needed jobs.

Interestingly, Algeria has concurrently announced plans to construct major railway infrastructure linking its southern regions with the more urbanised north. This initiative would further improve connectivity and potentially facilitate broader regional economic integration beyond its borders.

Outside of Africa, the project could help Europe reduce its dependence on Russian energy exports, something European governments are keen to achieve in the aftermath of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Although Algeria has maintained close ties with Moscow for decades, it has increasingly adopted a more balanced approach in its relations with global powers as multipolarity becomes a defining feature of international politics. Similarly, the closer relationship that Niger has developed with Moscow since the military takeover does not appear, thus far, to have interfered with the project.

While another natural gas project linking Nigeria to Morocco via the Atlantic coast has gained attention in recent years, the opportunities presented by the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline - and the necessity for participating countries to cooperate in preventing and countering terrorism - could reshape the security architecture and dynamics of the Sahel and Sahara in ways not witnessed in recent times.

However, these outcomes will not be achieved automatically. They will require a consistent strategy, sustained political commitment, and long-term cooperation among all stakeholders involved.

Fidel Amakye is a Ghanaian geopolitical and security analyst and founder of DefSEC Analytics Ltd based in Accra