Pointing fingers at Gachagua will hurt the Opposition

DCP Leader Rigathi Gachagua.[File, Standard]

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua remains impeached. He is therefore legally barred from the 2027 presidential ballot. The Senate removed him, the courts upheld it, and that position stands unless overturned. To conclude, however, that his political force is neutered is wilful self-deception. He is the apple of his community's eye and likely to shape Mount Kenya politics with consequence.

In Dickens' Oliver Twist, "the law is an ass", it can defy common sense. Former Governor Hassan Joho endured a circus over an alleged fake degree; Nairobi's Sakaja faced the same. Yet Joho served two terms and is now Cabinet Secretary, while Sakaja governs. Were their papers unjustly questioned? Judges know, but public opinion knows better.

For Gachagua, Suna East MP Junet Mohamed says legislators were bribed to impeach him. In the Bible, soldiers guarding Jesus' tomb were paid to lie about the risen Christ. If Riggy G reaches the Supreme Court, he could be cleared to run. Who knows, he might be cleared to run if he presents his nomination papers before the IEBC next year.  For President Ruto, the more the candidates, the merrier.

From a populous community, Riggy G could win outright or emerge second. With Kalonzo, Sifuna and Matiang'i on the ballot, a runoff looms. The DCP leader is not merely building a party; he eyes the presidency, forging networks at home and abroad, as his US trip shows.

In 2022, Ruto bypassed Mount Kenya heavyweights to pick Gachagua as running mate. He needed tenacity to beat Raila and Uhuru, who wielded chiefs, police and State machinery. Gachagua delivered, rousing crowds without notes in Karatina, Kiambu and Kerugoya. In 2024, that collapsed. Some 281 MPs voted to impeach him while only 44 stood with him.

Kenyans did not see a disgraced deputy. They saw a persecuted man. Voters instinctively side with the afflicted. Senator Edwin Sifuna proves it. Hounded as ODM Secretary General for opposing the broad-based government, he now tops Infotrack ratings for that defiance. Affliction attracts sympathy.

Less than a year since its founding, Gachagua's Democracy for Citizens Party has become a household name. People mention it more than Kanu, Jubilee and Wiper Patriotic Front. You hear it from Mathira and Othaya to Kayole and Kasarani, from Narok to Kericho.

For a party with one elected MP, that buzz is not accidental. It is mobilisation as strategy. That is why pro-Kalonzo and pro-Matiang'i supporters should let Riggy G be. Senator Richard Onyonka and MP Antoney Kibagendi were captured pointing fingers at him after he warned aspirants to tighten their belts in their own backyards to earn a seat at the table.

If opposition wants to dislodge Ruto, it must first solidify its base. All Kenyan politics is local. Ruto did it in Rift Valley, Raila in Luo Nyanza, Kalonzo in Ukambani. Why deny Rigathi the right to lock Mount Kenya? He has nothing to lose; history shows numbers are leverage.

Consider Raila. He lost in 1997, 2007, 2013, 2017, and 2022, yet in 2022 ODM still won 86 MPs, 12 senators, 13 governors and over 400 MCAs. He used those numbers to negotiate into government in 2008, 2018, and again in 2024 when his men joined Ruto. Who imagined John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi heading Treasury and Energy dockets under Ruto?

That happened because of ODM numbers. The same logic applies to 2027. If Ruto wins a second term with a parliamentary minority, what stops Gachagua, Kalonzo, Matiang'i or Sifuna from negotiating power-sharing? Kenya's history is blunt: Power is negotiated, not donated.

Politics is business, and strategy wins deals. Gachagua wants to be the kingpin who decides who becomes MP in Kiharu, governor in Nyeri, senator in Murang'a, and from that harvest billions through payroll deductions for DCP and Political Parties Fund. That formula has kept ODM liquid and afloat for two decades.

I do not always agree with Gachagua's tribal undertones. His rhetoric can be parochial. But dismissing his mobilising power is naive. He decries his mistreatment and impeachment, and that narrative resonates well with anti-government critics. 

Kenyan politics shows winning campaigns rest on regional foundations. Parties first secure governors, senators, MPs and MCAs before going national. Let Gachagua build Mount Kenya. Let Kalonzo consolidate Ukambani. Let Matiang'i test Gusii. Let Wamalwa and Sifuna hold Western. Then meet in a boardroom in Karen, not on podiums, and negotiate as equals.

If opposition wants unity, it must stop washing dirty linen in public. That is poor strategy against Ruto, a master at exploiting cracks. Gachagua's warning, lock your base first, is candid and correct. Anyone who thinks Ruto can be unseated without strategy, unity and grassroots base is deluding himself.

As opposition prepares for 2027, its greatest challenge is not Gachagua. It is whether leaders can stay united despite competing ambitions. Managing differences while building a credible alternative will determine its prospects far more than attacking one man. Pointing fingers at Gachagua will not weaken Ruto.

Mr Nyaringo is a Kenyan public affairs commentator based in Washington, US