Of a pale shadow flogging a dead horse: Scramble to inherit Baba's mantle leaves ODM at war

ODM leaders at Jacaranda Grounds on Ocotber 31, 2026. [Benard Orwongo Standard]

It was a month that had been tipped to go down in history. A moment to celebrate the life and times of the father of democracy, the late Raila Odinga, reunite his feuding former Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) troops and chart a way forward for the political legacy he left behind.

But as the curtain fell on Mwezi wa Baba on Saturday, what was intended to be a month of reflection, reconciliation and renewed political purpose instead exposed deep divisions within ODM, strained relations between the Odinga family and political allies, and raised questions about the future of the political empire Raila built over decades.

As the party leadership, led by chairperson Gladys Wanga and deputy party leader Simba Arati, projected confidence in the political direction the party was taking, one thing was certain: ODM is no longer the same party, and it will take a miracle to revive its once formidable influence across the country.

The anniversary month also marked what appeared to be the official political divorce and disintegration of the party Raila built with grit, as the breakaway Linda Mwananchi Movement unveiled its headquarters, effectively confirming its separation from ODM.

The leaders, led by presidential hopeful Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, alongside several other politicians, have sought a different path away from ODM, accusing the party of betraying Raila’s democratic ideals.

From chaotic scenes at Migwena Cultural Grounds in Bondo, Siaya County, where supporters heckled invited guests and youths clashed, to allegations of hired goons, public apologies by Raila's widow Ida Odinga and the conspicuous absence of senior party leaders, the commemorations have been overshadowed by political rivalries.

At the centre of the divisions is the broad-based government arrangement  Raila helped establish with President William Ruto. Competing factions disagree over whether ODM should maintain its cooperation with the government or reclaim its traditional position in the opposition.

On Saturday, as party stalwarts convened in Nairobi to conclude the celebrations, deep-rooted rivalries remained evident amid claims of internal anxiety over pre-election agreement talks with President Ruto’s UDA party.

ODM leaders at Jacaranda Grounds on Ocotber 31, 2026. [Benard Orwongo Standard]

The Standard has established that the President’s allies have developed cold feet over ODM’s push for a 50 per cent share of government in the proposed agreement, amid concerns that the party may not be able to deliver significant votes to the President.

“It will be bad if the region insists that they must have a written agreement with President Ruto. If there is a table of negotiations that is there, then we must be fully on the side of the president,” said Omollo.

Speaking in Maralal, Suna East MP Junet Mohammed appeared to confirm the divisions, claiming that it was not possible for UDA to form a government without ODM.

“We must respect each other. If you knew you wanted to create a government by yourselves, why did you invite us?... The government is for ODM and UDA,” said Junet.

Communication researcher and Associate Professor Charles Nyambuga said Raila’s party had been exposed as weak and might no longer command the government’s attention.

"The present ODM is weakened. It is not the same ODM that was there before the death of its founding leader Raila Odinga. The people have a feeling that it's controlled and weak," Porf Nyambuga said.

In a bid to demonstrate its political strength, crowds dressed in ODM colours and matching outfits thronged Jacaranda Grounds yesterday, following weeks of intense mobilisation and, according to critics, handouts to attendees.

But beneath the show of strength, the party was grappling with problems that exposed its internal divisions and threatened Raila’s political legacy. A silent succession battle and disagreements over negotiations for a pre-election pact with Ruto’s UDA party were slowly puncturing the appearance of unity.

At the heart of the dispute is a supremacy battle involving senior ODM figures eager to step into Raila’s shoes and provide what they describe as political direction for his supporters.

ODM leaders at Jacaranda Grounds on Ocotber 31, 2026. [Benard Orwongo Standard]

In recent weeks, Treasury Cabinet Secretary and senior ODM official John Mbadi has stepped up his premature 2032 presidential campaigns. In the process, he has attacked members of the Raila family, dismissed the influence of the deputy presidency seat and expressed his intention to lead Raila’s supporters.

Mbadi has been meeting delegations from Nyanza and Nairobi as he uses Mwezi wa Baba to build his profile as a potential heir apparent. However, his approach, marked by persistent attacks on Raila’s family, has further deepened divisions within ODM.

Last week, Mbadi renewed his attacks on the family and appeared to question Winnie Odinga’s Nairobi Senate bid, weeks after criticising Raila’s widow, Ida.

“Do not provoke us,” said Mbadi in an apparent attack on Ida, whom he accused of entitlement.

He was among the party stalwarts who boycotted Raila’s official anniversary event held at Migwena Grounds in Bondo on October 15. He subsequently launched a series of political attacks, dismissing what he described as entitlement.

Beyond the feud with Raila’s family, disagreements over cooperation with UDA have intensified in recent days, with leaders divided over whether to push for a written agreement or back Ruto’s re-election unconditionally.

The Standard has established that the President’s allies have also developed cold feet over ODM’s demand for a 50 per cent share of government in the proposed agreement, amid concerns that the party may not be able to deliver significant votes to the President.

In Nyanza, the disagreement is becoming more pronounced, with leaders questioning ODM’s demands in public. Last weekend, Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo claimed that Nyanza would deliver votes to the President without conditions, sparking an uproar within ODM.

Political analyst David Owino says Raila’s death has exposed the difficulty of sustaining a political movement heavily dependent on the influence of one dominant personality.

He argues that ODM is facing a more fundamental question than simply finding a replacement for its former leader.

"A year after Raila's death, the most important question for ODM is no longer who can become the next enigma. It is whether the outfit can define a political identity of its own before the voters who once followed Raila decide to find new political homes," he says.

Owino says the disagreements have extended beyond the party’s political direction to include the family’s concerns over how Raila’s memory is being handled.

"The family is concerned about how his memory is being treated, the party is divided over its political direction, and former allies are increasingly pursuing competing interests," he observes.

ODM leaders at Jacaranda Grounds on Ocotber 31, 2026. [Benard Orwongo Standard]

When ODM unveiled the Mwezi wa Baba programme, expectations were high that the activities would provide an opportunity for reconciliation and renewed commitment to Raila’s political ideals.

The programme began on October 2 with nationwide candle-lighting ceremonies, bringing together supporters for prayers, songs and tributes to the former Prime Minister.

Activities were subsequently extended to different regions, including Western Kenya, where a major rally in Kakamega on October 9 brought together supporters from across the region. This was followed by gatherings in Vihiga, Busia and other areas.

Leaders used the gatherings to call for unity, but much of their focus was on campaigns for Ruto’s re-election.

Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa was among those who defended the so-called broad-based government arrangement, insisting that Western Kenya remained firmly behind ODM’s cooperation with President Ruto.

"Western region is fully an ODM zone and, in that line, supports the broad-based government arrangement and the re-election of Ruto as the president in the next General Election," Barasa said.

But beneath the public declarations of unity, ODM was already grappling with disagreements over its political direction, leadership and relationship with the Kenya Kwanza administration.

The differences became more pronounced as the October 15 anniversary approached, with the Odinga family and ODM pursuing separate programmes, raising questions about who should take charge of Raila’s political and personal legacy.

ODM leaders at Jacaranda Grounds on Ocotber 31, 2026. [Benard Orwongo Standard]

While ODM organised its month-long activities, the family established the Raila Amolo Odinga Memorial National Steering Committee, chaired by Prof Adams Oloo and deputised by Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo, to coordinate the national commemorations.

The family also invited political figures from across the political divide, including former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and People's Liberation Party leader Martha Karua.

The guest list unsettled some ODM officials, particularly those aligned with the broad-based government, who questioned the presence of leaders campaigning against President Ruto.

Suna East MP Junet openly explained why he skipped the anniversary, saying Gachagua's inclusion had influenced his decision.

The absences came against the backdrop of disagreements over the organisation of the commemorations, the guest list and ODM's political direction.

"I did not attend because when I saw the list, I saw the name of Gachagua and decided I cannot sit in the same forum with him. Baba's spirit cannot sit with such a person," Junet said.

Ida defended the family's decision, arguing that her husband's relationships extended beyond party affiliations.

"Throughout his life, Raila built friendships, encountered disagreements and found reconciliation with people across the political divide. Our invitations to the memorial reflected that lifetime of relationships," she said.

She added: "Every guest we invited was welcome. The Odinga family does not quarrel with any of them."

Yesterday, a section of ODM supporters accused the party leadership of failing Raila during the month-long celebrations, arguing that it had prioritised personal interests at the expense of protecting his legacy.