What is in store for Kenya, Africa in China-US summit

US President Donald Trump meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, October 30, 2025. [Xinhua]

In the year 2000, we asked in whispers if the 21st century would be the Chinese century. China had just secured Hong Kong from the UK in 1997 and hit an economic growth rate of about eight per cent.

It was enjoying the fruits of Deng Xiaoping’s opening up two decades earlier. By then, I had not been to China. I have been there twice, visiting Beijing and Shanghai.

Since then, I have told my friends, students and anyone else not to talk about China but to visit the Asian economic giant. There is a big difference between the China in the media and the real China that you find on the ground.

A visit to the West finds the media hypes this region. A visit to China finds the “real China” muted by the media. It’s not hard to guess which media and why.

Last week, China was in the news, hosting President Trump, whose dalliance with the Asian giant has not been that cosy.

Its lowest point was higher tariffs. Why are the two countries at economic loggerheads?  Is it a fight for dominance, with the United States (US), accustomed to being the lone superpower after the end of the Cold War. Who won the Cold War?

What is curious to me is that the US contributed to the rise of China through investments. Remember President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972?

Key US firms from Apple to McDonald’s and General Motors are doing good business in China.

Other countries poured money into China, attracted by the big market.

Why the economic friction?

One, China grew faster than many expected. More so after deftly handling the end of the Cold War, which led to economic chaos in Russia.

China also did something else that was not keenly watched: it joined the World Trade Organisation, which catalysed its global credentials and trade. Few regions have grown like China after foreign direct investment (FDI).

In addition, the regions or countries have not grown fast enough to “threaten “the investors like China has done.

Beyond FDI, China grew faster because of cohesiveness, never mind through some force, its long history and racial homogeneity. Add the humiliation by the West, remember the opium wars?

China has avenged through its fast economic growth, just like Japan after the Second World War. Why can’t we take such revenge against colonialism?

China understands the rest of the world well.

When it started trading and investing, it made host leaders and countries feel at home. Lessons from her humiliation? 

China’s fast growth and confidence, and managing post-Cold War “chaos,” seems to have taken many countries by surprise, including the US. America has not found it easy to “manage “or “contain” China. It seems work in progress. China is usually very “quiet” on most big global issues.  Silence seems golden, even in geopolitics or economics.

It is against this backdrop that we should see the China-US summit. What is at stake? Any lessons for us?

At the top is the Iran war (and Venezuela). Both Iran and Venezuela exported oil to China. There will be a debate on how China shall get that oil or its replacement. Will China and its ally, Russia, play a role in the Iran ceasefire or ending the war? Did China share intelligence or arms with Iran?

Some of the China-US discussions may never become public. What is clear is that the Iran war is hurting everyone, including the US, and a quick end is needed. Two is trade. Will tariffs go up or down? The two countries need each other. One contentious issue will be rare earths, the new oil. China has a near monopoly.  America needs them, and the two big powers are likely to meet elsewhere (including in Kenya), trying to make deals over rare earths.

The US is also eyeing investment opportunities. Did you see the entourage of American CEOs with Trump? Do we carry our CEOs on such trips? Three is cars and AI. China played a long game by turning electric. China is slowly weaning itself from oil, while the USA is targeting Iran and Venezuela’s oil!

What will happen if electric cars made in China become widespread like American cars made in Michigan? What will happen to jobs? Remember the US government rescuing Chrysler and General Motors?

AI is the next big thing, and no one wants to be upstaged. The US is wary of China’s leadership in AI. Data on AI patents should worry Americans.  Four is Taiwan; will the island be the bargaining chip? Could China extract concessions by threatening to invade Taiwan?

Think of it, China has rare earths, Taiwan has a near monopoly on semiconductors that power the internet, our phones, and now AI. Could China argue privately, “You invaded Iran and extracted Manduro. Can you let us do our bit?”

Five, the two could discuss politics and how to handle each other’s ambitions, including in space.

China has lately become a player in space exploration, a reminiscence of the Soviet Union-US race to the moon. Who will win this time, the US versus China? Could China pull a surprise?

Kenya and Africa may feature because of minerals and markets. But each president will have his voters and citizens in mind, along with strategic interests.

Voters are watching who will come out stronger from the summit. There might be spillovers for us, but minimal. That is the nature of geopolitics and economics.

We should, however, not feel belittled; we have just had the France -Africa summit. Maybe we should compare and contrast the two summits, what they have for Wanjiku and the outcomes after about five years.