ODM-UDA pre-election talks trigger storm ahead of the 2027 race

President William Ruto and ODM leader Oburu Oginga during a past meeting. [File, Standard[

President William Ruto’s quest to galvanise support in ODM’s perceived political strongholds is facing a litmus test amid disquiet between the Orange party and UDA over the proposed pre-election pact.

The Standard has learnt that the president’s allies have developed cold feet over the push by ODM for a 50 per cent share of government, over concerns the party may not be able to deliver significant votes for Ruto’s re-election bid.

In Nyanza, the disagreement has spilled into the public as leaders question ODM’s demands. Last weekend, Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo claimed that Nyanza will deliver votes to the president without conditions, a move that has sparked uproar within ODM leadership.

“It will be bad if the region insists that they must have a written agreement with President Ruto. If there is a table of negotiations that is there, then we must be fully on the side of the president,” said Omollo.

His comments, however, have sparked uproar among ODM supporters and leaders who are pushing for a written agreement to guarantee their support for the president.

On Wednesday, a senior ODM official told The Standard that their UDA counterparts were undermining them and the strength of ODM.

“There are those who are keen to ensure that we back Ruto without any formal agreement for ODM and that is a narrative we cannot tolerate,” said the official.

In Kisumu, youths allied to both camps addressed a press briefing separately and hit out at each other over Ruto’s support and ODM’s demands. Those allied to ODM demanded a written agreement for the pre-election pact between UDA and ODM.

However, Homa Bay Governor and ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga downplayed the growing tension and told The Standard that there is no disagreement between the two parties.

Although she swept the issues under the carpet, the uncertainty over the UDA-ODM pact is growing in Nyanza and Western.

This came as a number of ODM MPs claimed that the party will only accept a formal arrangement with the president and declared support for ongoing discussions with the president’s team to craft a pre-election pact.

Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga maintained that the party will back a written agreement with the president.

“Our memories are still fresh of how agreements between parties, even those that were MOUs and therefore not legally binding, led to some of the darkest periods in the country’s history,” she said.

She claimed that there is push to reduce ODM to a Nyanza party. “The point, therefore, is that ODM would not, and cannot, enter into a coalition agreement without a binding legal agreement,” she said.

Another MP who sought anonymity admitted difficulties in pushing for the 50 per cent share in the pact, including the deputy presidency slot.

“The bone of contention is the deputy presidency slot. Our counterparts in UDA are inclined towards retaining the seat, and yet it is one of the key seats we are eyeing as a party,” he said.

Observers, however, are spelling doom for ODM and believe their push for a better deal with UDA is beyond their reach.

They argue that the party’s traditional strongholds are largely fragmented and hard hit by the emergence of opposition leaders who are charting a path away from ODM including Linda Mwananchi leaders Ewin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, among others. The leaders have aligned themselves with new parties and are bracing for a fight with ODM in the 2027 General Election.

Strategic and Political Communications and Leadership Communications Consultant Barack Muluka believes ODM’s pursuit is a fruitless political mission.

"The country is so big and with so many varied and competing interests and groups to satisfy," Dr Muluka says.

He opines that anyone demanding 50-50 share of government is either raising the stakes ahead of dialogue, or they are simply telling you to go to hell.

An Associate Professor of Strategic Communication, Dr Charles Nyambuga, opines that the ODM push for 50-50 power-sharing agreement will be difficult to actualise since all the other parties in Kenya Kwanza never pursued and deposited any agreement before the last elections.

"Pursuing that kind of agreement is thus not expected by the Ruto regime," Dr Nyambuga says.

He says the stance ODM is pursuing despite their weakened position could be a tall order.

Meanwhile, Rangwe MP Lillian Gogo says she cannot foretell the outcome of the negotiations between ODM and UDA.

She says it's prudent that they wait for a negotiated process that's duly steered by the core principles.

"Either way, we need a country," the legislator says.